Insiders Poll: Winners and losers from the Third Republican Debate
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Rubio, Christie, Cruz shine in debate; Bush had a bad night
October 28, 2015 (updated on October 29 at 12:04 pm EST)
By James A. Barnes
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio had a big night on Wednesday and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz also had their moments. In a survey of more than 130 Republican and Democratic political Insiders surveyed by Ballotpedia, more than half judged Rubio to be the "biggest winner" of the October 28 Republican presidential debate at the University of Colorado in Boulder conduced by CNBC. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, once considered the most likely winner of 2016 GOP nominating contest, had another underwhelming performance that has many observers speculating about the future of his candidacy.
Ballotpedia surveyed 134 Republican and Democratic strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest groups operatives after the debate concluded: 84 Republicans responded and 50 Democrats participated. This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from Insiders. As political professionals, Insiders often view events like debates through a similar prism—at least on the main result: 50 percent of the GOP Insiders said Rubio won the debate, as did 58 percent of the Democrats.
Rubio’s poise throughout the debate won kudos from Republicans. “He is the best communicator on the stage,” maintained one GOP Insider. “Republicans know intuitively they will need that against Hillary.” Added another, Rubio “was on fire to night, looked very professional.” And a third GOP influential described Rubio as “clear, confidant, magnanimous, uplifting—in a word, a leader.”
Democrats also praised the Florida Senator’s performance. “Rubio deftly swatted attacks aside and turned them into opportunities to hit his message,” said a Democratic Insider. “He was funny, serious and likeable. He was far and away the winner.” Another Democrat averred, “My party ought to be worried—their best general election candidate has stepped forward.”
As for who was the biggest loser in the debate, almost three-out-of-five of Republican (58 percent) and Democratic Insiders (60 percent) said it was Bush. And in their comments, Insiders in both parties panned Bush’s effort. “Jeb did nothing to reassure his nervous supporters,” said one GOP Insider. “Faded into the background, again,” said another. “It was like he wasn't there,” observed a third GOP Insider. “Road gets tougher for him every day.”
Democrats agreed. Bush “seems lost and uninterested in the issues. Lacks passion,” said one Democratic Insider. “Bored, tired, stressed, whatever: un-presidential,” added another. A third Democrat joked, “Trump is right, he does have low energy.”
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie also shined. In a separate question on whether the candidates had helped or hurt themselves in the debate, or neither; 83 percent of the Republican Insiders said Cruz had helped himself and 82 percent said Christie was helped (85 percent said Rubio helped himself as well). Here again, Bush was judged harshly: 65 percent of the GOP Insiders said Bush had hurt himself. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul also seemed to falter, with 45 percent saying he had been hurt. The two GOP frontrunners in the polls, Donald Trump and Ben Carson also had uneven performances, 37 percent and 30 percent, respectively, said they had been hurt. Only 17 percent said Trump had helped himself and only 15 percent said Carson had helped himself.
At one point in the debate, Bush was asked about whether fantasy football games are essentially gambling and need to be reigned in somehow. Bush joked that he was “7-0” in his fantasy league so far this season, but he added that perhaps the high-stakes Internet games where hundreds of millions of dollars have been waged, need some sort of regulation. After that remark Christie pounced: “Are we really talking about the getting the government involved in fantasy football?” he asked. “Let people play, who cares?”
Cruz “had best single moment of the night (bashing CNBC) and was able to contain his normal angry personal,” said one Republican Insider. ‘Christie shined again tonight,” said another GOP Insider. “That line about fantasy football may have ended Jeb’s campaign. He truly shines in a debate format.” Meanwhile, “Trump acted like he didn’t have to do debates anymore, Carson sounded like Mr. Rogers; Bush was dark,” declared another GOP influential.
And who do Democratic Insiders think would be the toughest debater against Hillary Clinton, should she be their party’s nominee? Rubio.
“The generational difference would make Rubio competitive,” acknowledged one Democrat. “He has a message and he’s good on his feet,” said another. “A Rubio candidacy, inherently focused on vision for the future, would turn 2016 into a change election like 2008 was for Barack Obama,” observed one Democratic influential. “It's a debate Clinton could handle well with her own vision and the historic candidacy she embodies. In the end, Rubio represents the GOP's best chance in 2016.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the forthcoming 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted October 28-29.
See also
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Boulder, Colorado CNBC Republican debate (October 28, 2015)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
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